THE LAST ARK

CHAPTER 7: RISE OF THE DRAGON

White House Conference Room, Washington, DC. Five Days Before Temple Ceremony

Matt Adelson faces a nation more divided than at any time since the Civil War, with a nation standing at the brink of world war. Confi rmed into his new role as Director of the National Intelligence Agency only a few months ago, the tall, lean, white-haired and steely gray-eyed, thirty-six-year spy master expects an interactive dialogue, so he digs into the key issues. “Mr. President, Madam Vice President, we’re here to discuss the expanding alliance between Russia, China, and Iran that we’re calling the Red Dragon Alliance. Sanctions stemming from the Ukraine invasion, and China’s covert support, have emboldened Putin and foreshadow an invasion of Taiwan. Support from China along with weapons deals has made a renewed Iran nuclear deal unlikely.” National Security Advisor Joe Dominic, an elderly diplomat who habitually wears thick pinstripe shirts, and not a man to pull punches, lays his palms on the conference table to look each person in the eye, ending with the president. “Sanctions failed to stop Putin from invading Ukraine; in fact, he considers them a declaration of war. Likewise, China’s President Xi remains determined to unify with Taiwan and transform China into the next superpower in a direct challenge to the United States. Further aggression between the Kremlin and NATO not only risks a nuclear response, but may also drag in the Red Dragon.” “Contrary to Putin’s 2021 Geneva assurances,” adds Admiral Paul Andersen, “they’ve upgraded their entire strategic force of bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and defense warning systems. Moscow successfully tested hypersonic weapons that can travel over f ive times the speed of sound, and then used those missiles in Ukraine. The Kremlin also boasts of nuclear-powered torpedoes, capable of reaching US shores from a thousand miles in hours.” “Come on, Admiral, look at Ukraine. The Russians look pretty weak. The real danger may not be their military might as much as nukes in the hands of a madman,” General Duncan interjects. “Before nukes, Putin will turn to cyber,” says NSA Director Sean Asher. “Good point,” Matt quipped. “The Department of Defense had a dozen networks infiltrated by the SolarWinds hack in 2021 and a half dozen other similar incursions since. To this day, neither DOD nor the Cyber and Internet Security Agency can say with certainty what Putin was doing inside our networks. That’s a breach we can’t ignore.” “Ah, that’s bull-pucky,” snaps the president. “Are you telling me the United States military needs to fear the Russians or Chinese? They can’t even beat Ukraine.” “No sir, but their missiles can still kill innocents,” retorts Defense Secretary Harlan. Matt has worked across the aisle his entire career and believes in a strong America and a strong NATO. Sadly, the aging president still thinks of an America that existed in the late twentieth century. While a refreshing change to the lawless and autocratic tone from the last administration, the new POTUS still believes he can unite the American people over shared values and a plan to rebuild the middle class. A leader out of touch with a deeply divided nation will fail everyone. General Duncan heaves a sigh. “Sir, I assure you that the United States military can and will keep our dominance. That said, I echo the recommendation for restraint. During a 2019 war game exercise with allies to test our readiness against a combined Russian, Chinese, and Iranian force, I’m ashamed to say that the Blue Team, the US and her allies, kept losing. China boasts a million man force. Both Russia and China maintain sizable arsenals. Caution will save lives.” “That doesn’t sound reassuring,” responds Vice President Davis. “It’s not meant to be,” General Duncan replies. Matt stays silent. Both the Russian and US stockpiles have been depleted by the ongoing Ukraine war, leaving China fully stocked. Rebuilding our stockpiles will take time. “Putin started this war, and our lack of direct engagement gives China the idea that an invasion of Taiwan is survivable,” says Security Advisor Dominic. “And before you say sanctions, there’s no way sanctions on China wouldn’t hurt the US as much or worse than the Chinese.” “Good point. While Russia is a serious concern,” adds Defense Secretary Harland, “President Xi has adopted a more coercive and aggressive approach that foreshadows a Taiwan invasion. China has a full nuclear triad of missiles, submarines, and long-range-bombers. While the PRC has maintained a ‘No First Use’ policy since the 1960s, contending it will never use a nuclear weapon f irst, its buildup of advanced capabilities represents a serious strategic threat.” “Dear Lord, the cold war boils over,” Vice President Davis mumbles. “Hold that thought, Madam Vice President,” Matt directs. “During a September 2021 speech, President Xi vowed China will not stop until it completes reunification with Taiwan. He warned that the burden of peaceful unification was on Taiwan, similar to the language used by Putin before Ukraine. Beijing closely watches the United States’ willingness to defend its allies.” “How strong have they become?” questions the president. “Strong enough,” responds Defense Secretary Harlan. “Their total number of naval ships has increased 50 percent to six hundred with eighty new aircraft and three hundred new long-range missile silos capable of holding a hypersonic. After a successful 2021 hypersonic test, they held joint military exercises with Russia off the Japanese coast in a show of defiance.” Matt takes a deep breath. “Sir, we believe President Xi has ordered a Taiwan invasion by 2024. After we danced around engaging in Ukraine, they’re betting we will be too weak politically to engage in another major conflict before an election.” “Are we seriously willing to go to war over Taiwan?” questions HLS Director Wallace. “Don’t we have enough problems at home? Election integrity battles are about to get fierce.” “The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company or TSMC produces nearly ninety percent of the world’s advanced chip demand used for AI, navigation, military, and more. In addition, China already controls eighty-five percent of the world’s rare-earth minerals needed to make those chips. While Intel invests billions in new Ohio microchip plants, they’re years away from full production. Losing Taiwan would cripple the US tech, military and auto industries overnight,” argues Russell. “Yes, we go to war over Taiwan.” “Come on, what’s with the fear-mongering?” rebukes Joint Chief General Duncan. “We have a powerful technological edge with the combined forces of NATO and other allies. Western alliance QUAD forces are better trained, better equipped, and certainly strong enough to be an effective deterrent to Red Dragon.” “Overconfidence, General Duncan, will defeat the strongest army,” responds Matt. “While I agree we have a superior force, a decade of hacks and digital sabotage have compromised our advantage. In 2021, Nicolas Chaillan, the ex-Pentagon software chief, resigned in protest against the slow pace of technological transformation in the US military. Nick claimed that unless there is a radical change in our investments in AI and other advanced techs, we will lose to China. More recently, Preston Dunlap also resigned for the same reasons. We’re falling behind the Chinese while Congress stalls.” T he room goes silent for a moment. Matt studies the aged, weary face of the president. The lifelong politician looks drawn, pale, and exhausted. No snappy comeback. No cheeky story of his youth. Matt wonders if the president has enough fight in him to deal with the unique threats of the twenty-first century. No president wants to leave a legacy of war behind him, but this president may not have a choice. If he doesn’t grasp the urgency of the scenario soon, matters will only worsen. American global dominance and options will continue to erode. “Which brings us to Iran and the Middle East,” Security Advisor Dominic segues. “After the death of the Saudi king, the crown prince vowed swift changes, including a military alliance with Israel to thwart Iran. They’re resurrecting the peace framework from the last administration. Intelligence indicates that Iran is speeding up their weapons program in response.” “Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called Israel a ‘cancerous tumor’ and wants the nation ‘uprooted and destroyed.’ The Ayatollah considers the peace deal a betrayal of the Palestinians,” Secretary of State Stenson adds. “Old news. We have enough on our plate,” the president replies, shaking his head. “There’s no upside to getting involved. Too many presidents have failed to deliver. Let’s support the process behind the scenes. Stay focused on deterring Putin and the Red Dragon.” Matt shares a glance with CIA Director Russell. It’s the right strategic perspective, but evangelicals will twist their position into an abandonment of Israel. “We have one last topic, sir,” interjects Attorney General Blaine. “The attorney generals from New York, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona, along with the federal DOJ, have coordinated investigations into the former president. Together, we plan to announce over seventeen federal and state criminal indictments. We’ve alerted the Capital Police, FBI, and National Guard to prepare for an upsurge in political violence and protests.” “The former president meets later today with the New York District Attorney. Secret Service agents will facilitate an arrest or impose travel restrictions upon his return home,” explains FBI Director Wright. “Ah, geez, more fodder for the Fox News/Q-Anon conspiracy crackpots. Don’t we have any good news today?” complains the president. “Sorry, sir, it won’t be one of those meetings,” replies Matt. An optimist at heart, Matt believes in an America that seems more nostalgic than aspirational. It gets harder every year. On some levels, America has never been stronger. On other levels, we’ve never been more divided and vulnerable. In the twentieth century, the nation faced formidable enemies with strong national unity. The situation reminds him of a text sent last year by the SLVIA code before it disappeared. T he feet and toes, partly of potter’s clay and partly of iron, the kingdom shall be divided; yet the strength of the iron shall be in it. And as the toes of the feet were part of iron, and part of clay, so the kingdom shall be partly strong, and partly broken. Daniel 2:41 A divided power is a vulnerable power. America is currently both.